Koonins intervention into the debate about what to do about climate risks seems to be designed to subvert this progress in all respects by making distracting, irrelevant, misguided, misleading and unqualified statements about supposed uncertainties that he thinks scientists have buried under the rug. Here, he claimed that modest global warming will be beneficial for the planet, without noting that the negative impacts of climate change will far outweigh any positive ones. Of course polar ice caps were much smaller and sea levels much higher when CO2 was as high as it is now. In episode 37 of the PetroNerds podcast, Trisha Curtis sits down with Steven E. Koonin, the author of "Unsettled." Trisha and Steve discuss the premise of the book, the elevation of climate change in policy making, potential pitfalls in the data, and the controversial topic of understanding how much humans are influencing global warming and the certainty of that in the reports and analysis. So, for example, the impacts shown for 5C correspond to a warming four times (!) The proportion of global major hurricanes increased by 25% over the 39-year time period analyzed. The claims, many of which Koonin has previously stated in his book, "Unsettled," seek to downplay the severity of a range of . U.S. For the average American, climate science may as well be divination. As I discuss in Unsettleds Chapter 6, that conclusion is consonant with those of 2014 US National Climate Assessment and of the subsequent 2017 CSSR (its Section 9.2). As Figure 8 shows, is doesnt hold for the recent past at high resolution, but is correct for older times at coarser resolution. Whether these changes are related to climate change is, however, unclear. So Emanuel is faulting common usage in his field. Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist, University of California, Los Angeles: [Comment from a previous evaluation of a similar claim] There is relatively little evidence in either direction at this point in time regarding global or even regional trends in tornado frequency/intensity. In Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, Steven Koonin draws upon his decades of experienceincluding as a top science advisor to the Obama administrationto provide up-to-date insights and expert perspective free from political agendas. Take, for example, the 2020 experience. Purdue's inclusion of Steven Koonin as a part of the Presidential . The fact that human influences on hurricanes have not been detected contradicts common perception among non-experts. They have already been falsified. The author benefited from conversations with Henry Jacoby, Richard Richel and Benjamin Santer in preparing this essay. Lee Kump, Professor, PennState University: This statement is misleading. In January, when Steven E. Koonin welcomed participants to the Climate Change Statement Review Workshop that he was chairing for the American Physical Society, he made a point of acknowledging "experts who credibly take significant issue with several aspects of the consensus picture.". The 2020 Kossin et al. In Unsettled, Steven Koonin deploys that highly misleading label to falsely suggest that we dont understand the risks well enough to take action, Steven Koonin, a former undersecretary for science of the Department of Energy in the Obama administration, but more recently considered for an advisory post to Scott Pruitt when he was administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, has published a new book. Heres How to Get In. Other analysis contradicts Koonin's theory that the net economic impacts of climate change are likely to be "minimal". while global atmospheric CO2 levels are obviously higher now than two centuries ago, theyre not at any record planetary high theyre at a low that has only been seen once before in the past 500 million years.. Koonin implies throughout the book that climate scientists have conspired to downplay uncertainty and exaggerate the risk, apparently unaware of the fact that increased uncertainty means increased risks. You will be notified in advance of any changes in rate or terms. 04/22/21 4:34 PM EDT, Article He appeared on Bill OReillys The Firston May 6, Andrew Bolts show on Australias Sky News on May 5, CNBCs Squawk Box on May 4, and Kudlow on March 19. Knowledge awaits. The former Obama administration official and physicist counsels otherwise. Narrated by: Jay Aaseng. A much more honest statement should read something like this from the IPCC Fifth Assessment: there is low to medium confidence in attribution of climate change influence on a few sectors Risks of global aggregate impacts are moderate for additional warming between 1C to 2C compared to 19862005 Aggregate economic damages accelerate with increasing temperature (limited evidence, high agreement) but few quantitative estimates have been completed for additional warming around 3C. Since 2014, more comprehensive studies have offered still incomplete portraits of the correlations between distributions of net economic damage (not just fitted values) along alternative global development pathways and increases in global mean temperature[41]. The net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century.. Steven E. Koonin Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters Hardcover - April 27 2021 by Steven E. Koonin (Author) 3,762 ratings Kindle Edition $17.99 Read with Our Free App Audiobook $0.00 Free with your Audible trial Hardcover $22.96 11 Used from $15.99 18 New from $22.96 Great on Kindle Great Experience. Overall, says Twila Moon, many conclusions highlighted in this article are examples of cherry-picking information and failing to provide the context of change. Steven E. Koonin (born December 12, 1951) [1] is an American theoretical physicist and former director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University. The author begins by describing what he refers to as "The Science"you know, the thing everyone is supposed to be following: Climate models predict two or three times more warming than has been observed. The ad hominem epithets began flying from the moment the book was published last spring. the number and severity of droughts are also not trending up.. Marianna Lavelle of Inside Climate News also addressed some of the claims Koonin made in his new book, including rebutting the statement hemade on his Fox appearances about hot temperatures and heat waves in the U.S.: The average annual temperature in the contiguous U.S. has increased from 0.7 degrees to 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.2 to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the start of the 20th century. He promises to highlight some points likely to surprise anyone who follows the newsfor instance, that the global area burned by fires each year has declined by 25 percent since observations began in 1998. Global statistics are meaningless in this context. Observers have labeled this pivot by fossil fuel companies and their supporters "climate delay," which, among other things, falsely tries to paint new technologies, such as carbon capture, as more than sufficient to save us while they increase oil and gas production. Response: The fact checkers do not dispute the statement, which surprises most non-experts, who typically believe that human influences on the climate are the dominant cause of fires. Dana Royer, Professor, Wesleyan University: The fact that CO2 levels have been higher in the past[45] should not be used as evidence that humans are not changing the climate or that we should not be concerned about our near future. ), The Climate Feedback piece also addressed other misleading claims from Koonins book that he did not repeat in his Fox interviews, including misleading statements on global wildfires, the severity of droughts, global crop yields, and the economic impact of climate change. Koonin is a leading voice of the new climate denialism, and his recent book on the subject, Unsettled, has become the . To counterbalance this, I'm tempted to read another climate change book by a different fella called Steven Koonin. Moreover, the authors concluded that Global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Democratic National Convention via AP One of the country's top physicists, who served as the Department of Energy Undersecretary during the Obama administration, is out with a new book that. You may cancel your subscription at anytime by calling They argue that the gun of climate change is pointed at our head and time is running out. Read36 mins ago | The Editorial Board, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Main Menu. Koonin also points out how wildly climate computer models disagree with each other. However, Kumps allusion to CO2 concentrations exceeding 1000 ppm in the next several decades is absurd. CO2 concentrations are currently some 420 ppm and have been increasing recently by about 2.3 ppm per year. There are fundamental problems in validating such claims, as I discuss in Unsettleds Chapter 9. Some of the major claims Koonin made in his May 6 Fox appearances came directly from his book, which was reviewed in Read34 mins ago | Peggy Noonan, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Here, I consider a few early statements in his own words. Edition. That is false: Koonin stipulates firmly that Earths climate is changing and becoming warmer, and that human influence is playing a role. Steven's book is called 'Unsettled' and it seems to be raising a lot of controversy given it calls into question the alarmist nature of the climate change models we're currently using. Response: The statement is true, and the fact checkers do not dispute it, but rather give reasons why it is true and why it might not be true in the future. That. Doesnt the world face economic catastrophe, absent wrenching, unimaginably expensive actions to reduce greenhouse emissions? News Corp is a global, diversified media and information services company focused on creating and distributing authoritative and engaging content and other products and services. If this all sounds familiar, thats because it is -- this sort of thing happened just last summer, when climate contrarians Bjorn Lomborg and Michael Shellenberger both released books downplaying the seriousness of climate change within a month of each other. At that rate, it would take several centuries, not decades, to reach 1000 ppm. . The most up-to-date research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences demonstrates an increase in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes (Category 35) globally, supporting theoretical predictions that date back to 1987 (see figure below)[38]. Can you beat their predictions? There is a more marked increase in nighttime lows than in daytime highs (the warmest temperatures) because of factors like the cooling effect of daytime aerosol pollution and soil moisture evaporation. This article was published more than1 year ago. Over the next couple of years, climate change policy will generate much debate. In the climate change wars, perhaps an equally important development is associated with the publication of Steve Koonin's book "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and . Read35 mins ago | The Editorial Board, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Read5 hours ago | Abe Greenwald, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles William Happer, a Princeton scientist who is doubtful of the dangers of climate change, appears to be leading a White House challenge to the government's conclusion that global warming is a threat. This is why rising sea levels are expected with very high confidence to exaggerate coastal exposure and economic consequences [Section 19.6.2.1]. . These criticisms of Koonin's book are complemented by a lengthy, detailed, substantiative review from 12 scientists in Climate Feedback Criticisms are supported with figures and cited references. We, like many others, found it newsworthy that Koonin, a former senior government official and nationally known scientist, has a different perspective on climate change, one outside the main . Steven E. Koonin Professor of Information, Operations & Management Sciences and the Director, NYU Center for Urban Science and Progress (CUSP); former Under Secretary of Science at the U.S. Department of Energy. Galileo, not the high priest Inquisitors who condemned and ostracized him for his heresies, is the person we remember. 2022 Scientific American, a Division of Springer Nature America, Inc. IPCC estimates are that increased heat and drought resulting from anthropogenic warming will slow the rate of yield growth, not reverse it[6]. They are evaluated briefly in their proper context, supported by findings documented in the latest report of the. CO2 levels were lower than todays at every glacial maximum for the last 800,000 years[42], as revealed by ice core records (see Figure 8 below). This is not to say that uncertainty is being eliminated, but decision makers have become more comfortable dealing with the inevitable residuals. By Dr. Steven E. Koonin April 24, 2021 10:23am Updated The media constantly points to tragic fires in places like Australia (pictured) and California as evidence of climate change. it also is a logical fallacy to say that if things arent causing a net decrease then it isnt a concern. Most significantly, the majority of the authors had only low confidence that any other observed tropical cyclone changes were beyond what could be attributed to natural variability. This is how science works, and in the case of climate, the early indications detected and attributed in the 1980s and 1990s, have come true, over and over again and sooner than anticipated. Like Koonin, they both appeared across the right-wing media ecosystem to promote their books. "The report was written more to persuade than to inform," he says. Customer Service. Furthermore, the phrase in the past century is telling nothing since no one familiar with the global record of tropical cyclones would look at data prior to 1980; it is just way too poor to be able to detect trends. He formerly served as chief scientist for BP (a company that has played an outsized role in both worsening climate change and delaying climate action). Not because of its conclusions about climate, about which his contrarian views might be completely wrong. Steve is a professor at New York University and a nonresident senior fellow here at the American Enterprise Institute. One obvious bad faith segment that caught my eye: Stephens quotes Steve Koonin, a former Obama administration official turned climate denier favorite talking head, on Greenland's melt. While those points are wrong and easily debunkable, they have been spreading across the vast right-wing media ecosystem. koonin, a physicist, professor and undersecretary for science in the department of energy during the obama administration, starts from the position that yes, climate change is real, and then,. One sets out the basic thesis of the book, and the other is a summary of Koonin's background. Our current rate of change is hundreds of years. We are delighted that you'd like to resume your subscription. Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles In 'Unsettled', Koonin, a theoretical physicist and professor at New York University, expresses his views on climate science. The calumny and name-calling that greeted Koonins book has helped to make his point. Sky News Australia, which is owned by Rupert Murdoch, has a history of climate denial. For times before ice cores (>800,000 years) CO2 levels have to be inferred less directly from geochemical or biological proxies. Steven E. Koonin is a theoretical physicist, professor, former Chief Scientist for the BP petroleum company, and former Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy under the Obama administration. The observational record does not show any significant change in the frequency of U.S. tornadoes in the last 60 years but there is a tendency that more tornadoes occur during big outbreak days[34] and there are spatial shifts in the occurrence of tornadoes[30]. She also countered his claim about a future minimal economic impact of climate change by noting 2019 research that found that global warming has very likely exacerbated global economic inequality, including 25% increase in population-weighted between-country inequality over the past half century. Multiple scientific studies have showed that the cost of climate inaction far outweighs the cost of climate action. 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In addition to his May 6 appearances on Kudlow and Tucker Carlson Tonight, Koonin has made a number of other television appearances, written op-eds, and given interviews promoting his book. He promises to highlight some points likely to surprise anyone who follows the newsfor instance, that the global area burned by fires each year has declined by 25 percent since observations began in 1998. Global statistics are meaningless in this context. Koonin, who recently appeared on Fox News Tucker Carlson Tonight, pushes a message of climate skepticism that right-wing outlets are all too eager to lap up, Special It is, however, well-covered in Unsettleds Chapter 6. In Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, Steven Koonin draws upon his decades of experienceincluding as a top science advisor to the Obama administrationto provide up-to-date insights and expert perspective free from political agendas. From Mills et al.[44]. Read35 mins ago | William Nattrass, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Customer Service. The other mode is to make . From Kossin et al. Not according to Koonin, who cites the United Nationss own report stating plainly that any such effect would be minor at most and decades away. Koonins misinformation-filled book wont be the last one to downplay the threat of climate change, but its becoming easier to spot books like these when right-wing media take an exclusive interest in promoting their false claims. Article In 2017, he advocated for a red team-blue team approach to climate science, which would put the consensus to a test and illuminate differing perceptions of climate science. This idea apparently caught the attention of then-EPA Administrator (and notorious climate change denier) Scott Pruitt. Steve Koonin is just the latest to inflate his modest liberal credentials, a two-year stint in the Obama administration, to sell the rankest of rightwing climate denial propaganda retreads in. It is unsupportable without qualification because aggregate estimates are so woefully incomplete [Section 19.6.3.5]. In other instances, statements are fully wrong and unsupported by scientific research.. It was accompanied by the, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, third, fourth, fifth and sixth largest conflagrations in the states history, Counterfactual Experiments Are Crucial but Easy to Misunderstand. Koonin concludes with the spot-on observation that many of the reports "continue to paint a demonstrably deficient picture of the science [of climate change]. As the sun has become brighter over the history of our planet, CO2 levels in general have fallen, keeping our planet habitable[44]. Steve Koonin will present his insights and expert scientific perspective on climate change at an event moderated by Chris Varcoe of the Calgary Herald and Financial Post on Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021 . As my books Chapter 7 says (beginning on page 138), it is also difficult to see any long-term trend in drought across the contiguous US, but there are clear regional trends, particularly in the US Southwest. Data is binned into 3-year periods. Response: The correctness of Mr. Mills necessarily brief statement depends upon the temporal resolution. Read37 mins ago | The Editorial Board, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Take a more specific example. 11/03/22 5:43 PM EDT, Video & Audio According to Steven Koonin, when it comes to climate change, the media, politicians, and other prominent voices have declared that "the science is settled." Koonin avers that the long game of telephone from research to reports, to the popular media, is corrupted by misunderstanding and misinformation. On May 6, theoretical physicist and former Obama administration energy official Steve Koonin appeared on two Fox programs to discuss his recently released book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters. Some of the major claims Koonin made in his May 6 Fox appearances came directly from his book, which was reviewed in an April 25 Wall Street Journal piece that repeated a number of its claims. (if applicable) for The Wall Street Journal. Steven E. Koonin is a genuine example of someone daring to challenge a prevailing orthodoxy. Response: The fact checkers agree with the statement, which is another tonic to the notion that the world is suffering from climate devastation. One could say the economy is larger than it was 30 years ago, so nothing hurting the economy is a concern. Fox News fearmongered 80 times about Halloween trick-or-treaters getting rainbow fentanyl. Read1 hour ago | Joe Grogan, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles (55N to 30N), (d) tropics (30N to 20S), and (e . Programs A recent book by Steve Koonin, undersecretary of energy during President . In the first place, the theoretically predicted trends would not have been detectable in the sparse and noisy hurricane record until recently, and in fact they HAVE recently been detected. . Discover world-changing science. Future projections regarding climate change and tornado risk are of somewhat low confidence, but there is evidence that atmospheric environments favorable for severe convective storms (which are the types of storms capable of producing tornadoes) may increase in the future due to climate warming[32,33]. Learn on the go with our new app. Moreover, even for that slow, small change (21 km or 13 miles per decade), eight of the eleven authors had only low to medium confidence. And in 2019, he reportedly tried to help former President Donald Trump create a climate contrarians panel with longtime climate denier Will Happer. The U.S. government's Climate Science Special Report, to be released Friday, does not provide that foundation. Nonetheless, Swiss Re recently released a, The trouble is that while seas have risen eight to nine inches since 1880, more than. In response to Koonin's last media moment earlier this year, Climate Feedback tapped twelve climate scientists to review an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal based on his book, "Unsettled",. In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist, University of California, Los Angeles: [Comment from a previous evaluation of a similar claim] While there remains no strong evidence for an increase in tropical cyclone (hurricane) frequency on a global basis, there is evidence that the most intense tropical cyclones are indeed becoming stronger in terms of maximum wind speeds and minimum central pressure[38] and are producing more extreme rainfall[39]. From August through October of 2020, California suffered through what became the largest wildfire in California history. Please, read Mr. Koonins book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters. It opens with some facts you arent likely to hear elsewhere: The warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years. Heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900. Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century. Greenlands ice sheet isnt shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago. The net economic impact of human induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century., Already a member?
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